Labels: International Politics, War on Terror
|||116309425259284595|||That Other WarUPDATE: Greta plays it again tonight! Geez.
Labels: Misc.
|||116306009018692407|||I Don't Want to Hear ThisSo what lessons can we learn from this? One is that the Republican PR machine is not very good. This is not news, but up until now the GOP has managed to survive without it. But with support for the war in Iraq lagging, better PR is needed. President Bush just isn't an orator - we need someone with the verbal skills of Bill Clinton.
Second, conservatism is clearly a winning strategy. Jim Webb, Heath Shuler, Jon Tester all ran and were elected on a conservative platform. It certainly doesn't soothe Republican pain, but one of the surest signs your side is winning is that the other side starts stealing your issues. It also makes no sense why Republicans want to run away from such an obvious winning strategy.
Third, the anti-illegal immigration demagoguery is not nearly as effective as certain Republicans previously thought. Supposedly, this issue was to be a winner for the GOP. How well did that work for you? Minutemen-backed candidate Randy Graf was handily defeated in Arizona. Also in Arizona, immigration hawk J.D. Hayworth - second only to Tom Tancredo as Congress' most vocal critic of illegal immigration - was likewise defeated. On the other hand, it has driven Hispanic voters away from the Republican party. Immigration reform will likely happen now; Republicans must walk the line and make it as painless as possible and try not to alienate either side any more than necessary.
Finally, Republicans must return to their Reaganesque roots of limited government. The current Republican Party is basically controlled by big government types who attempted to bribe voters with new entitlements. As a result, libertarian leaning voters have been driven away - so much so that it may well have cost the GOP two Senate seats. We must return to our limited government, fiscal conservative roots if we want to win.
There it is, my take on the situation. I could be wrong, but I don't see how. If the Republicans can embrace these steps, they will be successful. If not, we'll see more of the same.
UPDATE: Linda Chavez weighs in.
Labels: Government, Philosophy, Taxes and Fiscal Policy
|||116304215176073701|||Election AnalysisUPDATE: Spoke too soon. The Dems have won Missouri, Burns is trailing in Montana, and Virginia is headed for a recount, but it doesn't look good for Allen. I'll weigh in more thoroughly later.
Labels: Government, Tennessee Politics
|||116296184095597890|||Election ResultsSenate Races
Tennessee: Bob Corker (R) vs. Harold Ford, Jr. (D)
The Democrats were excited about possibly picking up Bill Frist's seat, and poured plenty of money into this race. Meanwhile, Corker got stuck in a slump following his primary win, and Ford rolled to leads in most polls. However, Corker appears to have recovered, and is now leading in most polls, double digits in some. I doubt he will win by that much, but win he will.
Prediction: Corker, Republican retention.
Connecticut: Joseph Lieberman (I) vs. Ned Lamont (D) vs. Alan Schlesinger (R)
It's between Lieberman and Lamont, who defeated Lieberman in the Democratic primary, forcing Lieberman to seek reelection as an Independent. Lamont won the battle, but he'll loose the war; Lieberman will win big, and might just decide which party controls the Senate.
Prediction: Lieberman, Independent pickup, probably de facto Democratic retention.
Ohio: Mark DeWine (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D)
Republicans are bracing for defeat in Ohio, where the party is in shambles due to corruption in Columbus and a deflated base. Senator Voinovich better be thankful he's not the one up for reelection this year; otherwise, he'd be loosing by even more than DeWine.
Prediction: Brown, Democratic pickup.
Montana: Conrad Burns (R) vs. Jon Tester (D)
Republicans are worried in Big Sky Country, where incumbent Burns has been trailing Tester in most polls for several months. Ideologically, the state is conservative, but Burns got caught with his hands in Jack Abramoff's cookie jar, and that is a hard thing to overcome.
Prediction: Tester, Democratic pickup.
Virginia: George Allen (R) vs. James Webb (D)
Yep kiddies, there was a time when Allen was mentioned as a serious candidate for president. Many, many smart folks, including yours truly, bought the hype. That talk has now been replaced with speculation on whether Allen will even return to the Senate. Webb has run as an old school conservative Democrat, and Allen has run as an idiot. Regardless of the outcome of this election, Allen will never be president.
Prediction: Allen in a squeaker, Republican retention.
Pennsylvania: Rick Santorum (R) vs. Bob Casey, Jr. (D)
Santorum is the third ranking Republican in the Senate. He's one of the most conservative members. And he's from a blue state. That places a bull's eye on his back. Casey is pro-life and is very well known in the state. Real Clear Politics lists over 75 polls for this race. Not one shows Santorum with a lead. The get-out-the-vote effort will help, but unfortunately not enough.
Prediction: Casey, Democratic pickup.
Maryland: Ben Cardin (D) vs. Michael Steele (R)
The open seat in Maryland has become one of the most exciting races in the country, as Democrat Ben Cardin faces African-American Republican Steele. Polls show Cardin with a narrow lead, but there's little doubt that Steele has the momentum. This race hinges on how African-Americans vote. If Steele can win 20-25% of it, the race is his. Given numerous endorsements he has received from black evangelicals and black Democratic politicians, I think he can.
Prediction: Steele in a squeaker, Republican pickup.
New Jersey: Robert Menendez (D) vs. Thomas Kean, Jr. (R)
It's very strange that a Senate race in one of the nation's most liberal states in a year when GOP prospects are dim at best would be in doubt, but such is the case. Menendez is under federal investigation for corruption. Most polls show incumbent Menendez with a narrow lead. In any other state, Kean would win big, but not here.
Prediction: Menendez, Democratic retention.
Rhode Island: Chafee (R) vs. Whitehouse (D)
Chafee held off a tough primary challenge from a more conservative opponent to face Whitehouse, an ultra-liberal Democrat. Chafee himself is probably the most liberal Republican in the Senate. Most recent polls show him trailing, but the lead has been cut considerably. He has a decent shot at winning reelection, but the edge still goes to Whitehouse.
Prediction: Whitehouse, Democratic pickup
Missouri: Jim Talent (R) vs. Claire McCaskill (D)
Perhaps the toughest call in the nation, polls for months have shown these two within 5 points of each other. It will all come down to turnout. When in doubt, pick the incumbent.
Prediction: Talent in a squeaker, Republican retention
Net Senate gain: +3 for Democrats, Republicans maintain control 52-48.
House prediction: Republicans maintain control, 218-217.
Tennessee races:
Governor: Phil Bredesen (D) vs. Jim Bryson (R)
Bredesen has been consistently popular, and Bryson has been ignored by the media and not adequately funded. Bryson is a solid candidate, and likely will one day end up in Congress or perhaps the governor's mansion. But not this year.
Prediction: Bredesen
TN-1: Gay Marriage Amendment
A cynical attempt to bring conservative Christians to the polls? You betcha. Bad public policy? Yes. But there's enough sexually insecure voters to get this in the constitution.
Prediction: Amendment passes.
TN-2: Tax freeze for seniors
This should pass, unless voters don't bother to read what it says and simply abstain.
Prediction: Amendment passes.
Labels: Government, Tennessee Politics
|||116287552189804907|||Election PredictionsI was overwhelmed with joy and relief as I watched the criminals being read their verdicts. For the first time in our region tyrants are being punished for their crimes through a court of law.
Until this moment and while I'm typing these words I'm still receiving words of congratulations in emails, phone calls and text messages from friends inside and outside the country. These were our only means to share our happiness because of the curfew that limits our movement.
This is the day for Saddam's lovers to weep and I expect their shock and grieve to be huge. They had always thought their master was immortal so let them live in their disappointment while we live for our future.
This is a day not only for Iraqis but a historic day for the whole region; today new basis for dealing between rulers and peoples are found.
No one is above the law anymore.
Labels: International Politics, Iraq, War on Terror
|||116278942781029642|||Saddam's ConvictionLabels: Government
|||116278893619113226|||Republican Prospects Improve
Labels: Government, Humor, International Politics, War on Terror
|||116244088579445473|||Classic!Labels: Culture, Government, Immigration, International Politics, Tennessee Politics
|||116235731473179179|||Sad StoryHis skilled oration on domestic politics may be flawless, but his grip on foreign policy is error-prone. Yesterday he stumbled into gaffes on the North Korean nuclear tests and then mentioned Australia in the same breath as rogue nations wanting to go nuclear.Ford was humble and apologized when informed of his mistake. Or not:
"Here we are in a world today where more countries have access to nuclear weapons than ever before," Mr Ford said, adding that when he left college in 1992 he thought the nuclear age had come to an end "and America would find ways to eliminate the number of chances that a rogue group or a rogue nation would get their hands on nuclear material".
"Today nine countries have it - more than ever before - and 40 are seeking it, including Argentina, Australia and South Africa," he said.
The gaffes were lost on the audience and he was given a rousing standing ovation from Democrats and Republicans alike. Any chance of clarifying Mr Ford's remarks with the man himself was impossible as minders shielded any international media from asking questions, ushering Mr Ford away.This is getting very little (if any) coverage in the American media, which is unfortunate, as it calls into question Ford's ability to govern. Having said that, a political ad exposing this lack of foreign policy knowledge probably wouldn't be nearly as effective as the "call me" ad. This is unfortunate.
"You don't win us any votes," said his spokeswoman. And she might have added that it also means he is insulated from pesky questions probing his limitations on enunciating a foreign policy involving a trusted ally.
Via Glenn Reynolds.
Labels: Government, International Politics, Tennessee Politics
|||116218139221362039|||Ford to Australia: You're NextAfter this, it got really ugly. Supposedly, Allen used the N-word some 30 years ago. Unlike the macaca controversy, there is little to nothing legitimate here. Basically, it boils down to a he said/she said situation. There's no way to know if Allen used racial slurs three decades ago. And even if he did, that was years ago. Now, clearly anyone who uses the N-word in this day and age is either an idiot or an ignoramus, there is no indication that Allen has done so (unlike, say, Robert Byrd). This was nothing more than a baseless political attack.
Unfortunately, Allen has decided to respond in kind. In his latest attack on opponent James Webb, he has dragged up some books written by Webb that apparently are rated R. This may shock some people, but literature sometimes does include questionable content. Ever read The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn? How about The Catcher in the Rye? Edgar Allen Poe can be pretty disturbing. Heck, even some of Shakespeare's writings can be seen as objectionable. But they're all fiction (except for some Shakespeare)!
I think what we're seeing here is two very desperate candidates locked in a dead heat, each sinking as low as possible. I personally hope George Allen is reelected, and I suspect he will be. But I think it's safe to say his presidential ambitions have been derailed.
Elsewhere, Michelle Malkin is right.
Labels: Government
|||116201866930117288|||Yes, Virginia, Your Senate Race is Plagued by IdiocyMissouri over Oklahoma
NC State over Virginia
Penn State over Purdue
Auburn over Mississippi
Vanderbilt over Duke
Kentucky over Mississippi State
USC over Oregon State
Florida over Georgia
Nebraska over Oklahoma State
Georgia Tech over Miami (FL)
Wake Forest over North Carolina
Texas over Texas Tech
Florida State over Maryland
Tennessee over South Carolina
Labels: Sports, University of Tennessee
|||116195478594873857|||Football PicksLabels: Government, Philosophy
|||116178904420138132|||Holding My Nose and Voting RepublicanLabels: Misc.
|||116157614775561252|||PihocastingAmong other findings, the report, "A Profile of American College Faculty: Volume 1: Political Beliefs & Behavior," says that:Via Instapundit
* Professors are three times as likely to call themselves "liberal" as "conservative." In the 2004 presidential election, 72 percent of those surveyed voted for John Kerry.
* Almost one-third of professors cite the United States as among the top two greatest threats to international stability -- more than cited Iran, China, or Iraq.
* Fifty-four percent of professors say U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East is partially responsible for the growth of Islamic militancy.
* Sixty-four percent say the government's powers under the USA Patriot Act should be weakened.
Professors, says the report, are at the "forefront of the political divide" over U.S. foreign policy that has developed since the 2001 terrorist attacks. Faculty members have "aligned themselves in direct opposition to the political philosophy of the conservative base voting for the prevailing political power" in America, it says. Unlike most Americans, it adds, faculty members "blame America for world problems" and regard U.S. policies as "suspect."
The report labels the faculty's overall stance as liberal "groupthink," and says it is dangerous because faculty members "are supposed to provide a broad range of ... approaches to addressing problems in American society and around the world." Professors are role models for students and frequently are called upon to act as "pundits" by the media and as experts on foreign policy, it adds.
Labels: Academia
|||116138189793796197|||Who's Lacking Diversity?Economic hypochondria, a derangement associated with affluence, is a byproduct of the welfare state: An entitlement mentality gives Americans a low pain threshold -- witness their recurring hysterias about nominal rather than real gasoline prices -- and a sense of being entitled to economic dynamism without the frictions and "creative destruction" that must accompany dynamism. Economic hypochondria is also bred by news media that consider the phrase "good news" an oxymoron, even as the U.S. economy, which has performed better than any other major industrial economy since 2001, drives the Dow to record highs.
Labels: Government, Taxes and Fiscal Policy
|||116132344805661144|||Economic HypochondriaLabels: Government, Tennessee Politics
|||116132201485790062|||The Race for the State LegislatureVirginia over North Carolina
Texas over Nebraska
Maryland over NC State
Penn State over Illinois
Arkansas over Mississippi
Georgia over Mississippi State
Miami over Duke
Notre Dame over UCLA
South Carolina over Vanderbilt
Michigan over Iowa
Tennessee over Alabama
California over Washington
Boston College over Florida State
Oregon over Washington State
Pittsburg over Rutgers
Oklahoma over Colorado
Texas A&M over Oklahoma State
Clemson over Georgia Tech
Labels: Sports, University of Tennessee
|||116123831524071979|||Football PicksLabels: Movies, War on Terror
|||116114646214848433|||World Trade Center